Oscar Predictions 2012

 

If you know me it’s not uncommon that I wait till the last minute for everything. I love the Oscars despite their long stretches of boredom. I like to think I have the Academy Awards figured out (old, rich, jewish, white men). I’m pretty damn good at predicting the winners usually. Last year, I even outguessed Ebert by one and surprisingly picked the Best Foreign Language film pick despite it always being a name out of a hat.

2012 Oscars Nominations 

Best Picture
“The Artist”
“The Descendants”
“Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“The Help”
“Moneyball”
“War Horse”
“The Tree of Life”

Who Will Win: The Artist
Who Should Win:  The Artist
Dark Horse:  The Descendants

A couple months ago this race was anyone’s game, hell even Tree of Life had a chance but nothing can derail the powerhouse train of “The Artist” beloved by some, overhyped by others, The Artist is a black & white silent gem winning the hearts and prizes of a majority of all the film awards this year. Don’t expect it not to go empty handed tonight.

Best Actor
Demian Bichir, “A Better Life”
George Clooney, “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin, “The Artist”
Gary Oldman, “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy”
Brad Pitt, “Moneyball”

Who Will Win: Jean Dujardin
Who Should Win:  Gary Oldman
Dark Horse: George Clooney

A great category that always has a completely out of the blue random pick (Demian Bichir) but this category belongs to Dujardin who has also been sweeping up awards like nobody’s business. Clooney and Pitt turned in great performances and I’d love to see Oldman get recognized finally but this is no doubt the year of the french.

Best Actress
Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Rooney Mara, “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep, “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams, “My Week With Marilyn”

Who Will Win: Meryl Streep
Who Should Win:  Viola Davis
Dark Horse: Viola Davis

Another tight category full of great performances that will no doubt be given to Meryl Streep’s performance as Margret Thatcher. While I think she is undeserving of a win, statistically she has been racking up more best actress wins this year than any other. I wish Viola Davis would finally get recognized for her talent, but there’s a reason I suppose that Meryl Streep has more nominations than any other actress.

Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh, “My Week With Marilyn”
Jonah Hill, “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte, “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer, “Beginners”
Max Von Sydow, “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”

Who Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Who Should Win:  Christopher Plummer
Dark Horse: Max Von Sydow

Another tight category that becomes a one-on-one for lifetime achievement between Plummer and Von Sydow. Both are extraordinary actors and deserving but Plummer has been cleaning up in his performance for “Beginners” and I see him picking up the Oscar as well.

Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo, “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain, “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy, “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer, “Albert Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer, “The Help”

Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Who Should Win:  Octavia Spencer
Dark Horse: Berenice Bejo

A stronger category than the Best Actress one, this category has long since belonged to Octavia Spencer’s wonderful performance. I wish all of the ladies here could get recognition but Spencer is going to be tough to beat.

Best Director
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Terrence Malick, “The Tree of Life”
Alexander Payne, “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese, “Hugo”

Who Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Who Should Win:  Terrence Malick
Dark Horse: Martin Scorsese

A tough category to predict since the directorial awards have been all over the place. It is more or less between Hazanavicius and Scorsese and usually Best film and Director go hand-in-hand which is why my money is on the Director of the Artist.

Best Original Screenplay
Woody Allen, “Midnight in Paris”
JC Chandor, “Margin Call”
Asghar Farhadi, “A Separation”
Michel Hazanavicius, “The Artist”
Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, “Bridesmaids”

Who Will Win:  Midnight in Paris
Who Should Win:  Midnight in Paris
Dark Horse: The Artist

Tough to predict but Midnight in Paris was highly acclaimed and I don’t think The Artist had enough of a script to warrant a win.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton, Jim Rash, “The Descendants”
John Logan, “Hugo”
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon, “The Ides of March”
Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zaillian, “Moneyball”
Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughn, “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”

Who Will Win: The Descendants
Who Should Win:  The Descendants
Dark Horse: Hugo

The obvious choice. The Descendants is 2nd to The Artist for Best Picture and this is usually the consolation prize.

Best Animated Feature
“A Cat In Paris”
“Chico & Rita”
“Kung Fu Panda 2”
“Puss in Boots”
“Rango”

Who Will Win: Rango
Who Should Win:  Rango
Dark Horse: Puss in Boots

I haven’t seen any of these films but Rango seems the most distinct and likable by most Award ceremony’s and critics to beat the other nominees.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Bullhead (Belgium)
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
A Separation (Iran)

Who Will Win: A Seperation
Who Should Win:  A Seperation
Dark Horse: Bullhead

An impossible category to predict. Usually the most obvious choice is never the winner but A Seperation has a lot of momentum behind it. Still the most well-known foreign film never wins so it’s anyone’s game.

Original Score
“The Adventures of Tintin,” John Williams
“The Artist,” Ludovic Bource
“Hugo,” Howard Shore
“Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,” Alberto Iglesias
“War Horse,” John Williams

Who Will Win: The Artist
Who Should Win:  The Artist
Dark Horse: Hugo

Tough category but I think that The Artist is so much music to carry it that it’ll probably topple any other contender.

Best Original Song
“Man or Muppet,” The Muppets; Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
“Real in Rio,” Rio; Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown, Lyric by Siedah Garrett

Who Will Win: The Muppets
Who Should Win:  The Muppets
Dark Horse: Rio

50/50 shot. I chose Muppets over African Birds.

Best Achievement in Art Direction
“The Artist”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
“Hugo”
“Midnight in Paris”
“War Horse”

Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win:  Hugo
Dark Horse: The Artist

Best Achievement in Cinematography
“The Artist”
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
“Hugo”
“The Tree of Life”
“War Horse”

Who Will Win: Tree of Life
Who Should Win:  Tree of Life
Dark Horse: The Artist

If Tree of Life doesn’t win, I give up on the Academy Awards.

Best Documentary Feature
“Hell and Back Again”
“If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front”
“Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory”
“Pina”
“Undefeated”

Who Will Win:  Paradise 3
Who Should Win:  Paradise 3
Dark Horse: Pina

A hard category to pick. Pretty much anyone’s game. 

Best Documentary Short Subject
“The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement?”
“God Is the Bigger Elvis”
“Incident in New Baghdad”
“Saving Face”
“The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom”

Who Will Win: The Barber of Birmingham

Random pick.

Best Animated Short Film
Dimanche/Sunday
The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
La Luna
A Morning Stroll
Wild Life

Who Will Win: La Luna

Best Live Action Short Film
“Pentecost”
“Raju”
“The Shore”
“Time Freak”
“Tuba Atlantic”

Who Will Win: Raju

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
“Hugo”
“Real Steel”
“Rise of the Planet of the Apes”
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”

Who Will Win: Harry Potter
Who Should Win:  Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Dark Horse: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Harry Potter seems to be the fan favorite and also the top choice. I won’t complain.

Best Achievement in Costume Design
“Anonymous”
“The Artist”
“Hugo”
“Jane Eyre”
“W.E.”

Who Will Win: Jane Eyre
Who Should Win:  The Artist
Dark Horse: W.E

Always pick the period piece. W.E. may have a chance though. eh.

Best Achievement in Makeup
“Albert Nobbs”
“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2”
“The Iron Lady”

Who Will Win: Harry Potter
Who Should Win:  Harry Potter
Dark Horse: Albert Nobbs

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
“Drive”
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
“Hugo”
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
“War Horse”

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
“Hugo”
“Moneyball”
“Transformers: Dark of the Moon”
“War Horse”

Who Will Win: Hugo
Who Should Win:  Hugo/Drive
Dark Horse: Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Oscars 2011: Reactions

Well The Oscars came and went and they were a magnificent disappointment. James Franco and Anne Hathaway seemed like a can’t miss pair for Oscar Hosts, and were a huge letdown. They started promisingly but doing one of my favorite award shows parodies and inserting themselves into the nominated movies. Afterward, came one of the most cringe-worthy, poorly-timed monologues in recent history. Anne got picked, because of her charming personality, but also because at a previous ceremony her singing talent was discovered and Franco, was picked because he is an attractive, dramatic performer with excellent comedic timing. Instead of combing those talents, Hathaway only sang in brief, awkward moments, and never stopped mentioning Hugh Jackman, while covering for Franco’s lost puppy dog host, who stared at the audience with glazed eyes, like he just rolled a blunt, and didn’t even try to improvise or be witty, just maintaining a dry tone throughout the ceremony. Personally I think Hathaway could have nailed it on her own without Franco’s dead weight.

 

The night didn’t stop there however, The whole night felt like a slapdash of random events. Ranging from strange and unusual presenters, like the scared and confused Kirk Douglas, and the Extremely busty Oprah Winfrey. The night also featured random moments of scattered scenes of past award winners on a obscure Oscar stage, and random tributes to Bob Hope, and Celine Dieon doing the “In Memorium” song.

On the plus side, most of the right people got there due, albeit being very predictable. Leo, Bale, Portman, and Firth all won acting trophies. My biggest and only shock was that Best Director went to Tom Hooper of the King’s Speech, while up against Fincher (My choice) The Coen’s, Aronofsky, O’ Russell, and a snubbed Christopher Nolan. While the King’s Speech was a great motion picture, the directing wasn’t as on pair with the fellow nominees. The predictions if you kept up with the blog were pretty-spot on, as I predicted about 18 out of 24 (hey, that’s impressive in my opinion) My two biggest wrong answers were Hooper over Fincher for director, and Trent Reznor (My pick to win) beat out my prediction of Desplat for the King’s Speech. I had always intended for The Social Network to win best score but second-guessed myself at the last minute. (that’s what I get) The only other major award that I missed the boat on which was cinematography which early on I predicted Inception, but got convinced by everyone that it was Deakin’s year. Still, I did predict “In a Better World” for foreign language which was a shot in the dark that ended up paying off, because I knew the winner would be a least obvious choice. Although my tally could have been higher if I didn’t go against my gut I still ended up beating Roger Ebert which I guess is a plus. Once again, I was also wrong in the short film predictions. Maybe next year.

 

What Worked:

Anne Hathaway
Jeff Bridges/Sandra Bullock as presenters
The Best Picture nominee montages
The opening parody
No major snubs
Best song performances
Independent films get recognized

What Didn’t Work:

James Franco
Lame/unfunny Presenters
Show had no direction
Kirk Douglas/Oprah as a presenter
Autotuning the Oscars
Lack of Major movie stars in attendance
Random montages for previous winners

Oscars 2011: Live Blog!

  • It’s that time of the year! I just posted my predictions but if u wanna feel like you’re watching with me and hear my remarks, keep refreshing this page!
  • In the hall of the mountain king by Trent reznor to an Oscar nomination montage. Hello awesomeness!
  • 5 minutes in and I love Anne Hathaway and James Franco already.
  • Morgan Freeman yes!
  • Confused why there is a back to the future parody…
  • 10 minutes in and the academy has regretted their hosting choices.
  • And for no random reason…Gone with the Wind!
  • Art direction for Alice in Wonderland! One down!
  • Damn I was guessing Inception to win but everyone convinced me True Grit! I just got Inceptioned! eh inception deserved it.
  • My name is James Franco and I host like a robot…
  • Did they pull Kirk Douglas out of his seat and throw him on stage?
  • Tough category to predict. I’m pulling for Leo you feckin’ queers.
  • Hey everybody look a crazy old man!
  • Best supporting actress is …hugh jackman…?
  • I thought they played people off when they talked too much.
  • Ok Oscars start over…now..
  • How is it possible to make Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis boring to watch?
  • Toy Story 3 wins best Animated feature. *gasp*
  • I wish I could speak like Javier Bardem.
  • Go Sorkin for Social Network!
  • Whoever wrote Sorkin’s acceptance speech should get an Oscar.
  • Great original screenplays nominated but the writer of the King’s Speech deserved it
  • Anne Hathaway singing….break!
  • What’s with all the Hugh Jackman shots tonight?
  • Why do I always feel like Russell Brand Is shouting his jokes at me?
  • Omg I totally guess/predicted In a better World to win and I was right! I rule!
  • Best supporting actor is a category where every nomination I think is deserving.
  • Did someone glue a fake beard onto Christian Bale?
  • Yes Anne Hathaway you danced with Hugh Jackman once shut up about it!
  • I’m pulling for Reznor but suspecting the King’s Speech.
  • Woo! Go Reznor. Amazing score!
  • The guy who just won best score used to sing about Fuckin’ you like an Animal.
  • Does Franco smoke a blunt with each celebrity presenter? Everybody babbles and giggles.
  • Inception wins best Sound bbbbrrrrrruggghhhhhhhhhhhh
  • Um Obama? I’m disappointed he didn’t support Eminem’s Lose Yourself.
  • Cate Blanchett dress fail
  • The Wolfman is officially an Oscar winner.
  • Webster’s dictionary defines a boring speech as this costumer design winner.
  • Um Obama? I’m disappointed he didn’t support Eminem’s Lose Yourself.
  • I have never successfully picked the short film winners ever….
  • Autotuning at the oscars. They’re really reaching for that young audience huh?
  • Oprah at the oscars? Who wants some nomineeeeessss??? You get an Oscar, you get an Oscar, you get an Oscar.
  • Guess we will never see Banksy at the Oscars
  • My twitter is full of people talking about the God of Love kid. He had an afro get over it.
  • Everyone is talking about how bored The Coens were while Oprah talked and I missed it. 😦
  • Oscar Producers: Shit, Franco/Hathaway are tanking, bring out Billy Crystal!
  • I’d totally go gay for Robert Downey Jr. or Jude Law
  • Inception wins best visual effects. nailed it!
  • Social Network wins best editing. Boo-fuckin’-Yah!
  • Damn Florence + The Machine is the go-to performer for awards show. I ain’t complaining.
  • Omg. Gwyneth Paltrow isnt singing “Forget You” for once.
  • Randy Newman won in a category of songs I couldn’t care less about
  • Damn 2010-2011 was a rough year for celebrity/filmmaker deaths
  • Dammit! Tom Hooper over David Fincher! Boo Oscars!
  • Fincher’s directing was the glue that held Social Network together. He deserved it!
  • Great best actress nominations but happy to finally see Natalie Portman get the Oscar.
  • Is Portman going into labor?
  • My complaint about the nomination reels for Best Actress was there wasn’t enough Lesbian scenes
  • Damn I thought they were gonna catch Franco lighting a blunt backstage.
  • If you didn’t think Firth was gonna win Best Actor, you should get punched till you have a stammer
  • I would give a blowjob to whoever edited this best picture movie montage
  • King’s Speech wins best picture. Called it! Social Network still the better movie
  • Oh yay the 5th grade chorus is singing. Pass…

    Oscars 2011: Best Actor Nominees and Alternative Movies

    The Oscars aka SuperBowl for movie nerds is quickly approaching. Everyday leading up to it, I hope to post a Oscar-themed movie list leading up to my predictions before the show and hopefully live blogging of the event itself. For my first list, I chose something to do with the great roster of Best Actor nominees. All five of them are some favorite of mine. so, to show people how great some of these actors are, I’ve picked some of their most underrated works that people should check out.

    Colin Firth – When Did You Last See Your Father?

    I caught this little seen indie British film on Netflix. The film is a short, cliche, awards-bait dramatic showcase for famed actors Firth and Jim Broadbent. The film is based on a memoir about a British man who returns to his childhood home to visit his dying father and reflects on his childhood and his turbulent relationship with his unfaithful, playboy father. Not the most original work, and maybe I’m a sucker for father-son dramas but the ending had me tearing up like a drunk girl on Prom night, mostly thanks to Firth’s acting.

    Jesse Eisenberg – The Hunting Party


    I sometimes think I’m the only person to have ever seen/heard of this movie. The film is a semi-factual story about three reporters (Richard Gere, Terrance Howard, Eisenberg) who search for a European War Criminal. The film is a hilarious satire mix of politics and journalism. The three main actors play off each other brilliantly, making for some hilarious exchanges and memorable scenes. Eisenberg especially displays talent as a young reporter who tags along with longtime cameraman/reporter team of Gere and Howard. The movie feels real in its absurdity and even tells you what was truth and fiction at the end of the film.

    Javier Bardem – The Sea Inside

    People always recognize Javier from his memorable turn as the villain Anton Chigruh, but he gained critical acclaim from this Foreign Language Best picture/true story about Ramon Sampedro, a quadriplegic who fought for his own euthanasia rights. The film is carried by Bardem’s brilliant performance, a character that is insightful, tragic, and inspiring. Whether or not you believe in Euthanasia, you can’t help but we transported into this beautifully shot, heartbreaking story.

    Jeff Bridges – Arlington Road

    One of my favorite underrated thrillers. Jeff Bridges stars as a widower college professor who beings to suspect his new neighbor, Tim Robbins, of being apart of a terrorist organization. Maybe its because I love thrillers that involve paranoia and obsession, but this is one well-made intense thriller that relies on great cat-and-mouse game between Robbins and Bridges. The two actors play off each other phenomenally that culminates with one hell of a twist ending.

    James Franco – Flyboys

    As much as I love Franco, he has starred in a lot of shitty movies. Flyboys isn’t particularly shitty, but it isn’t particularly great either. Franco stars as the leader of American pilots who help out the French Air Force during WWI. The movie’s acting isn’t memorable but it is worth seeing for the story, especially for war/history buffs. The other most memorable part is the aerial dogfight sequences which are the highlight of the film and worth investing your time in seeing.